Dems, GOP disagree, Part LXXXII

This particular chapter will be titled "The state Legislature."

Observers have felt that the Republicans' best chance for a pick-up in the state Legislature would be the Senate. While the Democrats currently hold a 25-10 advantage in the upper body, the party is split into two adverse factions. One, led by Senate president pro tem Lowell Barron, D-Fyffe, bankrolled primary opponents of State Sen. Gerald Dial, D-Lineville, an outspoken supporter of Gov. Bob Riley, and State Sen. Jim Preuitt, D-Talladega, who headed a Rules Committee alliance that blocked some of Barron's initiatives last year. If the Republicans can pick up four or five seats, goes the reasoning, they can pull some of the anti-Barron Democrats into a coalition and organize the Senate accordingly.

Not surprisingly, Alabama Democratic Party chairman Joe Turnham and Alabama Republican Party executive director Tim Howe had very different interpretations of what was going to happen there.

"Always, our top priority has been defending what we have, which was the majorities in the House and Senate," Turnham said in his relatively spartan Montgomery office Tuesday afternoon. "I think we'll be plus 1 in the House, and zero or minus 1 or 2 in the Senate."

Which would allow the Democrats to hold the Senate, although Turnham stressed that he did not want to talk about the organizational issues there.

Howe, naturally, disagreed. (We don't live in a two-party state for nothing, folks.)

"I think Republicans stand a better chance than that," he said. "I would suspect Republicans to pick up a couple seats in the House. I think we could pick up at least a couple in the Senate. I think turnout is just tough to predict."

Howe said he heard of good turnout around Baldwin County and areas of Birmingham; Turnham described turnout as "spotty." The party manned the phone banks in the morning to get people out to vote.

Turnham also expressed cautious optimism about the results tonight, expecting Ron Sparks to hold on as Commissioner of Agriculture and hoping for wins on the state Board of Education, the Public Service Commission and the Supreme Court.

Despite the polls on the governor's race, he remained hopeful. "I never give up," he said. "I'm Churchillian about that." Baxley's performance, he said, would aid other statewide races.

"The closer Lucy gets, the better chance Sue Bell Cobb and (Jim) Folsom, Jr. and (John) Tyson have to get over the finish line," he said.